VICO indices are benchmarks for thematic political, geopolitical and economic exposures. Each index translates probabilistic forecasts of significant world events into a single, continuously updated daily value, providing a comparable signal for exposures that have historically been difficult to quantify.
Each index is a weighted composite of forecasts on events with material political, geopolitical or economic consequences. The value changes day-to-day as the probability of each constituent forecast updates in response to new information.
As of June 17, 2026
| Ticker | Index | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| VICOIHRD | Hard Power | Higher = stronger US hard-power posture |
| VICOITKN | Tokenization | Higher = stronger tokenization adoption |
| VICOIDZN | Deglobalization | Higher = stronger deglobalization |
Each index is composed of a fixed basket of yes/no forecasts, organized into thematic subcategories that are also separately tradable.
VICO curates the basket of forecasts for each index. Every forecast is materially relevant to the index theme, resolvable on an objective public criterion, and time-bounded.
Within each index, forecasts are grouped into topical subcategories. For example, Hard Power has three subcategories: Use of Force, Strategic Commitments, and Capability & Industrial Base.
Subcategory values always sum exactly to the parent index value.
Each forecast is reviewed and weighted by VICO according to its expected importance to the index.
Three criteria are used: Magnitude (the size of the impact), Breadth (the expansiveness of the impact), and Permanence (the persistence of the impact). Forecasts contribute more to the index when they score higher on these criteria.
Each forecast has a defined direction of its impact (positive or negative). Upon a “Yes” resolution, positive forecasts move the index up, and negative forecasts move the index down. This allows a single index to represent a coherent thematic exposure even when some constituent forecasts move in opposite directions.
Each calendar day, VICO’s forecasting engine produces a current probability for every forecast in every index. The daily index value is the weighted aggregate of those probabilities, adjusted for direction.
The basket of forecasts in each index evolves over time. Forecasts are removed when they resolve “Yes” or “No” within their time horizon or are no longer materially relevant. New forecasts are added as new significant events become relevant. These changes are a normal part of index maintenance — the same kind of constituent turnover that major equity indices undergo.
To keep the published level continuous through these basket changes, VICO uses a divisor methodology — the same mechanism major equity indices use (e.g. the S&P 500). When a basket change occurs, the divisor is reset so that the published index level on the change date is identical to the previous day’s value. Real movement resumes the next day.
Every subcategory shares its parent index’s divisor, so the sum of all subcategory values exactly equals the index value on every day.
The index level on day t is the weighted sum of constituent effective probabilities, divided by the divisor:
summed over all constituent forecasts i in the index basket B(t). Variables:
On any day with no basket change, D(t)=D(t−1), so all movement in I(t) reflects real movement in the underlying probabilities.
On a day with a basket change (a forecast added to or removed from the basket), the divisor is reset to preserve continuity:
with the sum now taken over the new basket evaluated at the current day’s probabilities, and the denominator is the previous day’s published index level. By construction, I(t)=I(t−1) at the moment of the basket change, with real movement resuming on day t+1.
All methodology elements above apply uniformly across the VICO benchmark family.